Are U.S. Consumers Drifting Away from Turkey as the Centerpiece of Thanksgiving Dinner?
Growing demand for convenience, longer-term pressure on turkey supplies and increasing competition from beef and pork marketers may all impact the longevity of the holiday turkey.
DENVER (November 7, 2024) – While ample turkey supplies and favorable prices leading into the holiday season indicate turkey will retain its position as the traditional protein of choice this Thanksgiving, consumer trends are making the future less certain. Growing demand for convenience, longer-term pressure on turkey supplies and increasing competition from beef and pork marketers may all impact the longevity of the holiday turkey.
According to a new report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange, a downward trend in U.S. turkey supplies, coupled with changing traditions and consumer openness to other animal protein options could trigger a longer-term decline in holiday turkey sales.
“Most consumers think about cooking a whole turkey only once a year,” said Brian Earnest, animal protein economist with CoBank. “And some of those consumers have moved away from preparing a whole turkey for Thanksgiving. The beef and pork sectors have seen the shift in consumer behavior and view it as an opportunity to capture a bigger share of Thanksgiving protein purchases.”
Promotional activity around the holidays typically drives much of what shoppers choose to put in the cart. Retailers often price turkeys as a loss leader in hopes that sales on the remainder of the consumer’s Thanksgiving shopping cart will include items that offset those losses. However, USDA’s feature activity index shows a notable decline in promotional turkey pricing around the holidays in recent years.
As retailers began planning for Thanksgiving features last January, projections for turkey inventories were reported at their lowest point in four decades, signaling reduced availability in 2024. However, inventories of whole turkeys in cold storage were up about 4% year-over-year when they peaked in September at 246 million pounds. While inventories are still down 100 million pounds from 2018 levels, the improved supply picture means consumers should find favorable prices for whole turkeys this Thanksgiving.
Earnest noted that sliding demand for whole turkeys over the long term means producers should be evaluating the overall product mix more closely. “The opportunity to grow turkey consumption may be elsewhere,” said Earnest. “Per Circana, ground turkey has shown tremendous strength this year, with retail volume sales increasing 5.5% to reach $1.9 billion in sales over the 52 weeks period ending Sept. 8. The upswing in demand for different types of turkey products reflects the changing nature of consumer preferences.”
Read the report, Turkey is the Price-Savvy Protein for Thanksgiving.
About CoBank
CoBank is a cooperative bank serving vital industries across rural America. The bank provides loans, leases, export financing and other financial services to agribusinesses and rural power, water and communications providers in all 50 states. The bank also provides wholesale loans and other financial services to affiliated Farm Credit associations serving more than 77,000 farmers, ranchers and other rural borrowers in 23 states around the country.
CoBank is a member of the Farm Credit System, a nationwide network of banks and retail lending associations chartered to support the borrowing needs of U.S. agriculture, rural infrastructure and rural communities. Headquartered outside Denver, Colorado, CoBank serves customers from regional banking centers across the U.S. and also maintains an international representative office in Singapore.