Tariffs, farm policy and the shifting Washington landscape

Brian Cavey

December 10, 2025

Key Points

• While there is potential for a few more bills to pass Congress, bipartisan cooperation is less likely as the November 2026 election approaches.
• Expect the president’s authority on tariffs to dominate policy discussions in the coming year.
• While Farm Bill programs have been extended through September 2026, pressure is growing for Congress to act before the election. President Trump announced $12 billion in farmer assistance on Dec. 8.

As we begin the last month of 2025 and the 11th month of the second Trump term, the environment in Washington is changing, if ever so slightly. The shutdown stalemate led to a modestly bipartisan deal to fund the government through January and to actually complete three of the 12 annual appropriations bills—Agriculture, Military Construction and Veterans Affairs and Legislative Branch. It is feasible to think that several more of the funding bills will be completed in a bipartisan manner before the end of January. But there is no expectation of a furious burst of legislating to break out.

The new year will feature some new issues and continued challenges. The results of the November election were completely one-sided. Voters chose to pump the brakes on the administration, giving Democrats big wins in Virginia, New Jersey, New York City and California. There is nothing like a defeat to refocus elected officials on their own personal electoral fortunes. While we have already seen 46 announced retirements, January is traditionally the busiest month for these announcements to take place, so expect more to follow. Over the holidays, members of Congress look at the results of the most recent election, the amount of fundraising and mudslinging they expect to face, and they often decide after their winter break that spending more time with family looks better than ever.

As we publish this look ahead, there are a couple legislative weeks left in the year. We may see a few deals get across the finish line. The most likely is a subset of the nine remaining FY26 appropriations bills. But rest assured, the November 2026 election (that some will choose to avoid by retiring) will color every single decision on a vote by the time Tax Day 2026 rolls around. Sure, we could see some bipartisan agreement over the next few months, but as primary season approaches, neither side will want to give the other team a win. As a result, it would appear that the historical lack of production by Congress this year will continue.

While tariffs have likely not yet had their most significant effect on the economy, they are having some impact. Some sectors are hit harder than others and many businesses are changing their purchasing patterns to work around tariffs as much as possible. Supreme Court action could stimulate legislative need. A court decision limiting the president’s use of emergency authority could create some chaos around disposing of the tariffs already collected. And that result would also drive the administration to pursue other remaining legal avenues to reimpose tariffs. This issue will take a disproportionate amount of oxygen in the policy arena through next year, especially as Congress works to renegotiate trade agreements such as the United States Mexico Canada Agreement during that same time period.

The farm economy, particularly on the row crop front, will also get a constant focus. Continued low prices on commodities, large crops, curtailed export volume and elevated input costs add up to pain in farm country. While President Trump announced $12 billion to farmers through the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program with payments starting Feb. 28, 2026, many in the industry are calling the funding insufficient to fully address farmers’ pain. In an election year there will be pressure on both the administration and Congress to provide much needed certainty in the marketplace through additional relief or new export opportunities before the long October break ahead of Election Day 2026.

Now that Farm Bill programs have been extended through September some of the pressure to pass a Farm Bill 2.0 is relieved a bit. We expect House Agriculture Committee Chairman G.T. Thompson (R-Penn) to work towards a markup, and the Senate Committee may follow. To get an actual bill passed will require negotiations and compromise to reach a bipartisan deal. That will take additional funding and some reversal of nutrition cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed earlier this year. For many reasons, that may prove to be too difficult.

Those with modest expectations in the policy arena will not be surprised or disappointed. Large bills will be more likely pushed beyond next year without external catalysts creating urgency.